Op-ed for the Irish Times, April 16th, 2026

Amid the worst oil shock in global history, Ireland was on the verge of turning away oil tankers this weekend. That forecourts ran dry across large parts of the country was just one of the bewildering ironies surrounding the fuel protests.

For weeks, the world has watched with alarm as conflict in the Middle East stopped the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy chokepoint. Yet it was a group of tractors and trucks blockading ports and the Whitegate oil refinery that managed to stop the flow of Ireland’s oil. Demanding tax cuts and financial supports, their response was to deploy that very machinery that relies on fuel to blockade motorways, cities and Ireland’s oil supply, briefly choking off the very thing that we are so overly dependent on. In doing so, they exploited the same fragility inherent to fossil fuels as the blockade of Hormuz.

The source of fragility? It’s fossil fuels, all the way down: a crisis triggered by fossil fuel geopolitics, intensified by businesses dependent on diesel, whose protests deepened the disruption to fuel supply itself.

In a further irony, the blockades, like the price shock, fell hardest on those most reliant on fuel – long-distance commuters and motorists with no alternative to oil. Meanwhile, cyclists enjoyed empty streets in Dublin city centre and EV drivers quipped “who has range anxiety now?”.

The government blinked, responding by easing fuel prices in a financial package woth over half a billion euros, including a pause in the next carbon tax increase. This adds to the 4.8 billion euros the State spends each year supporting fossil fuels through tax reliefs and subsidies, a figure that is rising with every energy crisis.

Fuel tax cuts may bring relief in the short term, but does nothing to address the source of the problem. In fact, if the lost carbon tax revenue is not replaced, measures such as retrofitting – intended to protect vulnerable households from fossil fuel shocks - could be defunded.

The carbon tax has become a lightning rod. In economic theory, carbon pricing is efficient by placing a cost on pollution, allowing markets to find the cheapest ways to cut emissions. But the real economy is messy. Access to finance is a major transition barrier: decarbonisation often entails high upfront costs. Markets for alternatives, such as electric trucks, can be underdeveloped, and companies have little control over hurdles like charging infrastructure. Government support is necessary to overcome these barriers. 

These factors are acute for businesses heavily reliant on diesel, such as haulage, for whom fuel is a major input cost. Many are unable to pass on sudden price increases and lack the scale and financial capacity to hedge against fuel price volatility. It is not a surprise, then, that these sectors were at the heart of the fuel blockades: their viability was genuinely threatened. However, these business models built around diesel remain inherently exposed to the volatility of oil, a risk the public is now paying for.

Agriculture is even more complicated. The sector is also exposed to energy costs, and farmers and contractors can’t easily pass on higher prices given the export-oriented model and reliance on global commodity markets. Yet, the sector already receives substantial public support and is largely shielded from carbon pricing. The vast majority of agricultural emissions, from livestock, manure and fertiliser, are not subject to any carbon tax, and sales of fertiliser and animal feed are exempt from VAT. The government has less control over diesel prices because excise tax for green diesel is already very low. At the same time, agriculture accounts for a large share of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, and leaves the State exposed to significant financial penalties for missing EU climate targets.

Taken together, these factors point to the overwhelming case for radical structural change rather than simply cheaper diesel: towards an efficient, electrified energy system powered by renewables, and towards more diversified, resilient and climate-friendly land use. This requires a shared vision, and leadership and funding from government. 

Yet, much of the debate is focussing on distractions rather than durable solutions. Calls for oil and gas drilling have resurfaced, even though this would offer Ireland no protection from global price shocks. Nuclear energy is another perennial theme, but it is simply not appropriate for Ireland’s small and isolated electricity system, and would take decades to be developed. Meanwhile, an LNG terminal is being planned to shore up gas infrastructure, but would do nothing to protect Ireland from the kind of global fossil fuel shocks seen in recent weeks. These are not serious solutions to the crisis we face.

The crisis that sparked the protests was not caused by a shortage of oil in the ground, or a lack of fossil fuel infrastructure at home, but by geopolitical disruption to its supply, a risk that is an intrinsic feature of fossil fuels. The only durable solution to this vulnerability is to reduce our dependence, by electrifying transport, heating and industry, using energy far more efficiently, and renewables. This shift is increasingly viable given advances in clean energy technologies, the scale of which is widely underappreciated. In China, for example, sales of fully electrified heavy goods vehicles outstripped diesel models in December last year. Meanwhile, Ireland is falling behind: only one single electrified HGV has been registered so far this year.

Other countries are using this energy crisis to accelerate this structural change: France has doubled funding for electrification, while Spain’s rapid expansion of renewables has reduced its reliance on gas and kept electricity prices low through the latest shocks.

The final irony of Ireland’s fuel protests is that they may turn out to be more effective than any climate protest in driving us away from fossil fuels. Intended to highlight the pressures faced by diesel-dependent industries, the tactics used by protestors showed that our vulnerability is the fossil fuel system itself. We are watching this system hold the country hostage, and the government paid the ransom. We can, and should, aim to make this our last fossil fuel crisis, but Ireland still lacks a serious plan to leave that system behind, with no serious timeline, and after this week, less money to achieve that.