I joined the Irish Times Inside Politics podcast to discuss a recent report by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Council, with former Green Party leader and Climate minister Eamon Ryan.

I asked ChatGPT to summarise the discussion and to generate a cleaned version of the transcript.

Inside Politics Podcast (10th March 2025) - AI-generated summary

Hannah Daly (Professor of Sustainable Energy, University College Cork)

  • Compliance Costs and Legislation:
    • Ireland faces potential fines of €8 to €26 billion if it fails to meet EU climate targets by 2030.
    • Key legislation includes the Effort Sharing Regulation, Land Use and Forestry Regulation, and the Renewable Energy Directive.
  • Challenges in Agriculture:
    • Agriculture is the largest emissions contributor under the Effort Sharing Regulation.
    • Some sectors, like beef and lamb, are economically unviable without subsidies, suggesting an opportunity for cost-effective emissions reductions.
  • Policy and Infrastructure Gaps:
    • The government lacks urgency in addressing compliance gaps.
    • There are major infrastructure deficiencies, particularly in renewable energy integration and public transport development.
    • Complex and slow planning systems impede progress.
  • Legal Uncertainty:
    • Stressed the ambiguity in how climate legislation is being interpreted by regulators and the planning system, particularly regarding LNG infrastructure and data centers.There’s ambiguity regarding how bodies like the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities interpret their obligations under climate law.
    • Recent decisions on LNG infrastructure and data centers suggest a reluctance to enforce climate objectives strongly.
  • Political and Institutional Reluctance:
    • Daly was critical, suggesting that there is a prevailing hope within the government and civil service that penalties might be avoided, leading to a lack of urgency in action.

Eamon Ryan (Former Green Party Leader and Minister for Climate and the Environment)

  • Urgency for Change:
    • The transition to cleaner energy is inevitable and necessary for security and sustainability.
    • Key challenges are speed, low-cost delivery, and stronger political commitment.
  • Investment Priorities:
    • Urged investment in grid infrastructure, public transport, and renewable technologies.
    • The upcoming government capital spending review is a critical test of political commitment.
  • Legal and Planning Challenges:
    • The slow and complex legal system is a major obstacle to progress.
    • Courts must balance individual rights with the common good to facilitate faster infrastructure development.
  • Optimism About Progress:
    • Ryan expressed cautious optimism about Ireland’s ability to meet its targets.
    • Believes the public and political systems can adapt, though vested interests are slowing change.
  • Political Resistance:
    • Acknowledged that political reluctance and opposition, particularly around transport infrastructure, have slowed progress.
    • Stressed the importance of storytelling and framing climate action as beneficial to society.

Areas of Divergence

  • Optimism vs. Caution:
    • Ryan was more optimistic about the inevitability of the energy transition and Ireland’s ability to adapt.
    • Daly was more cautious, emphasizing the entrenched political and systemic barriers that slow progress.
  • Government Commitment:
    • Ryan believes there is genuine political commitment, though delivery is slow due to complex systems and opposition.
    • Daly was more critical, suggesting that the government hope to avoids penalties, leading to inaction.
  • Legal Clarity:
    • Daly highlighted the need for clearer mandates for regulatory bodies to ensure alignment with climate goals.
    • Ryan agreed but focused more on the broader need for investment and political will to drive change.

Conclusion

Both participants agreed on the seriousness of Ireland’s climate challenges and the need for urgent action. The main differences lay in their levels of optimism and their assessment of government commitment. Ryan emphasized the potential for progress and the inevitability of change, while Daly highlighted the significant political and systemic barriers that still need to be addressed.

Inside Politics Podcast - Cleaned Transcript (10th March 2025)

Introduction

HUGH: You’re listening to the Irish Times. Welcome to the Inside Politics podcast. I’m Hugh Linehan.

Ireland could face penalties between €8 billion and €26 billion if it fails to meet 2030 European standards, according to a recent report by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council. This would significantly impact the economy and the state’s ability to provide essential services.

How likely is this scenario? Why are we falling short, and what can be done to mitigate this risk? Joining me are Professor Hannah Daly of Sustainable Energy at University College Cork, and former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan, who recently served as Minister for Climate and the Environment.

Discussion

Compliance Costs and Legislation

HANNAH:

  • Three key pieces of legislation aim to help Ireland and the EU reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels:
    1. Effort Sharing Regulation (2018) – Covers emissions from domestic transport, buildings, small industry, and agriculture. If Ireland exceeds its emission limits, it will need to purchase credits from countries that have overachieved.
    2. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation – Sets national limits on emissions from forestry, soils, and wetlands. Compliance costs could range from €1.6 billion to €5.8 billion, reducing with additional measures.
    3. Renewable Energy Directive – Requires that 43% of Ireland’s final energy consumption comes from renewables by 2030. Progress in electricity is notable, but heating and transport sectors lag.

Uncertainty in Compliance Costs

HUGH: Why is the projected cost range so broad?

HANNAH:

  • The cost of buying credits is uncertain and depends on market conditions.
  • If countries like Portugal and Spain have surplus credits, Ireland can buy from them.
  • However, if overall EU targets are missed, credit scarcity could drive prices up significantly.

Challenges in Delivery and Political Commitment

HUGH: Eamonn, did you foresee this risk during your time as Minister?

EAMONN:

  • Yes, we’ve struggled with the speed and scale of necessary changes.
  • The transition to cleaner energy is inevitable due to its security and sustainability benefits.
  • The key challenge is accelerating this transition.
  • The report rightly frames this as an opportunity—investing now will avoid larger costs later.

HUGH: But if acceleration is needed, were we moving too slowly over the past five years?

EAMONN:

  • The plans are broadly correct, but delivery has been slow due to:
    • High costs
    • Political hesitancy
    • Resistance to local change
  • Politicians support climate action in principle, but it becomes challenging when it meets local opposition.

Key Areas of Focus

HUGH: Hannah, the report highlights three key areas: EVs, grid upgrades, and forestry. Why focus on these?

HANNAH:

  • These areas illustrate how investment can reduce compliance costs and bring domestic benefits.
  • Agriculture accounts for half of the emissions under the Effort Sharing Regulation, and transport for about a quarter.
  • Addressing agriculture is challenging, but necessary. Some sectors, like beef and lamb, are loss-making without subsidies, suggesting potential for emission reductions without significant cost.

Structural Changes in Agriculture

HUGH: Should livestock numbers be reduced?

EAMONN:

  • Yes, but change is happening. Fertilizer use is already decreasing, improving farm economics and reducing emissions.
  • Transport poses a bigger challenge.
  • Measuring emissions from land use is also complex, especially as climate impacts worsen (e.g., wildfires).

Influence of Larger EU Countries

HUGH: Could larger EU countries influence target enforcement?

EAMONN:

  • It’s risky to assume targets will be relaxed.
  • Europe’s economic and security interests align with reducing fossil fuel dependence.
  • Europe will likely uphold its climate commitments.

Reasons for Lagging Progress

HUGH: Hannah, why is Ireland lagging in meeting targets?

HANNAH:

  • Political reluctance to make tough decisions.
  • Legacy issues in agriculture and infrastructure.
  • A slow and complex planning system.
  • The government appears to hope penalties will be avoided, reducing their sense of urgency.

Political Resistance and Future Prospects

HUGH: Eamonn, given political resistance and independent influences, is progress realistic?

EAMONN:

  • We’ll be monitoring closely.
  • Everyone cares about protecting future generations.
  • Major decisions, like infrastructure investment and transport strategies, will test commitment.

HUGH: Could the legal system be a barrier to action?

EAMONN:

  • The legal system is slow and expensive, delaying projects.
  • Courts must balance individual rights with the common good to avoid delays in climate-related projects.

Regulatory Clarity

HANNAH:

  • Complexity in regulatory decisions, such as LNG and data centers, creates legal ambiguity.
  • Clearer mandates for bodies like the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities are needed to align with climate goals.

Government’s Role in Providing Clarity

EAMONN:

  • The government should provide clarity where legal uncertainties persist, especially concerning infrastructure and energy security.

Can the Political System Deliver?

HUGH: Is the political system capable of delivering these changes?

HANNAH:

  • Progress has been made, but vested interests remain strong.
  • Market forces alone aren’t enough—stronger political will is required.

EAMONN:

  • Changing the narrative is key.
  • Climate action must be framed as beneficial and essential to society.
  • Delivery matters, and while it’s tough, it’s necessary for economic and environmental reasons.

Life After Politics

HUGH: Eamonn, how’s life after politics?

EAMONN:

  • I’m still focused on climate, just in different ways.
  • This work is too important to step away from.

Closing

HUGH: Thank you both. Thanks to our producer Declan Conlon and engineer JJ Vernon. We’ll be back on Wednesday.