My team published a significant new paper which analyses the implications of overshooting carbon budgets in Ireland. Below I replicate our press release, which was picked up by the Irish Times this morning.

Swift energy transition in Ireland is needed to prevent climate and economic costs – new study

  • Most ambitious climate budget would only cost the equivalent of four cups of coffee a month for every person in Ireland
  • Failure to invest in energy transition now will lead to greater financial burden later
  • 2050 is too late a target for Ireland to go ‘Net-Zero’

Ireland’s climate progress is too slow, and must front-load its investment in energy transition to avoid significant climate and economic costs, new research has warned.

Researchers from University College Cork (UCC) say the level of investment needed to meet ambitious climate budgets would only cost the equivalent of between one and four cups of coffee a month for each person in Ireland.

However the research from UCC’s Energy Policy and Modelling Group (EPMG), published in npj Climate Action, warnsthat while delays in cutting greenhouse gas emissions may reduce short-term pressures, failing to accelerate climate action risks greater long-term costs, stranded assets, and dependence on unproven carbon removal technologies after 2030. Costs of Action vs Inaction:

The study reveals that meeting ambitious carbon budgets would cost between €600 million and €1.4 billion annually between 2024 and 2050, depending on the level of ambition. This amounts to less than 0.33% of GNI* annually to 2050—equivalent to each Irish person buying between one and four takeaway coffees per month.

The investment in clean energy is significant and is mainly required this decade, but it will nearly entirely pay for itself through long-term savings on fossil fuel imports, while also leading to cleaner air and a more secure energy system that is resilient to global energy crises. In contrast, ongoing reliance on fossil fuels in currently policy scenarios increases long-term financial burdens and continues to contribute to worsening climate impacts.

Key findings:

  • 2050 is too late for net-zero: Deep emissions cuts must occur sooner than currently planned for Ireland to contribute effectively to limiting global warming.
  • Immediate action required: Failure to act this decade would necessitate costly and possibly unfeasible measures later, including large-scale carbon removal with complex trade-offs.
  • Electrify and decarbonise electricity: Key measures include electrifying transport, heating, and industry, alongside expanding renewable power generation.
  • Manage energy demand: Reducing wasteful energy use complements technological solutions and can bring wider benefits. Lower energy demand makes more ambitious carbon budget scenarios more feasible and less reliant on speculative and costly carbon removal technologies. This can be achieved through compact urban development, shifting to pubic and active transport modes, and supporting less energy-intensive economic activities.
  • Phase out fossil fuels: Fossil fuels should be largely eliminated from power by the early 2030s and from buildings and transport by 2040.

Dr. Vahid Aryanpur, lead author, said; “Think of the carbon budget like a strict smoking limit for someone with serious health risks. Overshooting carbon targets early means extreme measures later. Steady reductions now are key to staying within safe limits.”

Senior author Prof. Hannah Daly said: “Ireland’s climate progress is too slow, and continued delays will make meeting EU and global commitments more costly and less feasible. Technologies for a clean energy system are mature and affordable—urgency is what’s missing.”

About the study

This study informed Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) and contributes evidence to deliberations on upcoming carbon budgets for the 2030s, through the CCAC’s Carbon Budgets Working Group, of which study author Prof. Hannah Daly is a member.

The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM), an optimisation model used in the study, evaluated cost-effective energy pathways that reduce emissions while meeting energy demand across sectors. TIM is open-source and peer reviewed, and its development within the EPMG is funded by the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications through the Climate Action Modelling Group (CAMG).

The study was conducted by UCC’s Energy Policy and Modelling Group, part of MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate, and Marine research at the Environmental Research Institute in University College Cork. EPMG is at the forefront of research supporting Ireland’s sustainable energy transition.