Irish Times, November 7th 2024 - link

As we approach a general election, voters and journalists should press political parties on two essential climate questions: Will they uphold and champion Ireland’s climate law? And what policies will they implement to deliver the immediate, deep and sustained emissions cuts necessary to achieve the carbon budgets adopted under that law?

Carbon budgets, which place limits on polluting greenhouse gas emissions, were adopted in the Dáil on a cross-party basis without a vote in 2022. Even so, their ongoing political support cannot be taken for granted. While carbon budgets are “legally binding” in name, a future government could sidestep climate commitments and repeal or amend the climate law. Moreover, constructive ambiguities built into the law mean that a government could interpret it in ways that effectively lower targets, making carbon budgets easier to meet but less impactful. This fragility makes Ireland’s legal commitment to climate action vulnerable to a shift in political will.

Until now, there has been a relatively strong political consensus on the Climate Act and carbon budgets in principle. But the outgoing government has failed to secure agreement on the specific measures necessary to meet those budgets. In just over a year, we’ll enter the second carbon budget period, which requires far steeper emissions cuts than the first. Projections from the Environmental Protection Agency indicate that planned policies will fall short, and the second carbon budget will be even harder to reach because of non-compliance with the first. For Ireland to meet its carbon budgets, the next government will need to implement significantly stronger greenhouse gas reduction measures.

To prevent backsliding, parties need to go beyond simply restating support for carbon budgets. They must clearly outline how they plan to accelerate emissions cuts beyond those in the current Climate Action Plan. The required measures are not a mystery: We already know what has to be done to cut emissions rapidly, and these measures, if implemented wisely, can improve our health, wellbeing and security, and create a fairer, more secure and prosperous Ireland. But they will disrupt some incumbent interests, require greater State spending, tighter regulations of polluting activities and a reallocation of financial and human resources towards climate mitigation. They also require the State to shift from supporting the status quo to actively promoting a transformation across society, from the economic model to land use.

Carbon budgets are not just scientific expressions of Ireland’s contribution to the global climate effort, but also a reflection of political will – and that will is inherently fragile and contingent. Even with a climate law in place, and threats of multi-billion euro fines for exceeding EU targets, there is no guarantee that the next government will implement the ambitious measures necessary to stay on track.

One potential threat is a backlash against climate action, as seen in other countries where it has been exploited as a wedge issue, often by the far-right, to stir up grievances. Ireland has largely avoided this so far: people are on the whole concerned about climate change and supportive of climate action, and there is no sign of an urban-rural divide.

However, conditions are ripe for a backlash. For example, the environmental policy of our newest political party, Independent Ireland, includes abandoning the net-zero target, expanding fossil fuel infrastructure, and promoting livestock farming – the country’s most significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution. Independent Ireland has also promoted the false and divisive narrative that climate policies are part of a “dogmatic green agenda” that punishes farmers and threatens food security.

It’s not inconceivable that if Independent Ireland gains traction with aggrieved rural voters and joins a coalition government, it could push to repeal the Climate Act altogether.

To avoid this, parties should commit, before the election, to uphold existing carbon budgets. They should also clarify which policies they plan to implement to close the gap to meeting those budgets, and articulate their vision for agriculture, land use, transport, energy and the economy, and how these sectors can be transformed to meet the needs of people without wrecking the planet. Moreover, ambiguities remain regarding the date at which the “net-zero” target is to be achieved, and how emissions of methane from livestock and from land use are to be treated; parties should be pressed on how they intend to resolve these uncertainties.

The reality is that many voters have other pressing concerns in this election—housing, healthcare, and wars close to Europe. It’s understandable that climate action is not top of mind for many. Yet the pernicious nature of climate change means if it continues to be sidelined as a priority, we will never be able to meet people’s basic needs. Globally, current policies are predicted to leading to warming of three degrees Celsius, which will cause catastrophic damage and enduring instability. If a wealthy and resourceful country like Ireland can’t do our part, how can we expect others to step up?